The new Malaysia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.42% of AsiaPacific regional power generation by 2012, with a decreasing generation surplus that should result in abroadly balanced domestic market. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2007 is 6,865terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 9.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting anincrease in regional generation to 9,435TWh by 2012, representing a rise of 37.4%.Asia Pacific power generation in 2007 was 5,407TWh, accounting for 78.8% of the total electricitysupplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 7,155TWh, implying 32.3% growth that reduces themarket share of thermal generation to 75.8% – thanks partly to environmental concerns that should bepromoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Malaysia’s thermal generation in 2007was 95.2TWh, or 1.76% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 1.83% ofthermal generation.For Malaysia, gas is the dominant fuel, accounting for 44.3% of 2007 primary energy demand (PED),followed by oil at 41.1%, coal at 12.1% and hydro with a 2.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand isforecast to reach 4,915mn toe by 2012, representing 32.9% growth over the period. Malaysia’s 2007market share of 1.55% is set to fall to 1.42% by 2012. Malaysia’s 6.3TWh of hydro demand in 2007 isforecast to reach 11.0TWh by 2012, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from 0.78% to0.75% over the period. There is no nuclear industry in Malaysia. Malaysia is now ranked fourth, threepoints behind Vietnam and just one ahead of Pakistan and Indonesia in BMI’s updated Power BusinessEnvironment rating, thanks to its low level of energy import dependence and excellent powerconsumption growth prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but thecountry is in a good position to keep clear of Indonesia below.BMI is now forecasting Malaysian real GDP growth averaging 5.13% per annum between 2007 and2012, with the 2008 estimate being 5.50%. Population is expected to expand from 26.57mn to 28.79mnover the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita both forecast to increasesignificantly. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from 98TWh in 2007 to 128TWhby the end of the forecast period, leaving surplus generation falling from an estimated 7TWh in 2007 to6TWh in 2012, assuming 4.8% annual growth in generating capacity.Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Malaysian electricity generation of 57.6%,which is mid-range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 19.3% in the 2013-2018 period, downfrom 27.6% in 2007-12. PED growth is set to fall from 26.6% in 2007-12 to 13.8%, representing 49.1%for the entire forecast period. An increase of 169% in hydro-power use during 2007-18 is a key elementof generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 55% between 2007 and 2018. Moredetails of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the appendix of this report.
Go to Source
BMI forecasts that Slovakia will account for 1.16% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) regional powergeneration by 2013, and remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states such asHungary. CEE power generation in 2008 was 2,610 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of1.35% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,884TWh by 2013,representing an increase of 10.51%.Thermal power generation in 2008 was around 1,342TWh, accounting for 51.42% of the total electricitysupplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,384TWh, implying 3.11% growth that reduces onlyslightly the market share of thermal generation to 47.99% – in spite of environmental concerns promotingrenewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Slovakia’s thermal generation in 2008 was 8.2TWh,or 0.61% of the regional total. By 2013, Slovakia is expected to account for 0.72% of thermal generation.Gas was the dominant fuel in Slovakia in 2008, accounting for 28.4% of primary energy demand (PED).Gas was followed by oil at 23.6%, coal at 21.7%, nuclear at 20.8% and hydro weighing in with 5.5% ofPED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,518mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013,representing 11.84% growth over the period. Slovakia’s 2008 market share of 1.33% is set to ease to1.32% by 2013. In 2008, Slovakia accounted for 4.73% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with aforecast market share of 3.98% by 2013.Slovakia now shares eighth and last place with Ukraine in BMI’s updated Power Business EnvironmentRating, behind even Hungary. Hungary is probably within Slovakia’s reach over the medium-term, and itshould be able to pull away from Ukraine during the next few quarters. The current score reflects themodest size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure, a low level of population growth, plusits high level of import dependence. Country risk factors offset the industry scores to some extent.BMI now forecasts Slovak real GDP growth to average 1.46% per annum between 2009 and 2013,although the 2009 estimate is for a decline of 4.20%. Slovakia’s population is expected to remain around5.4mn until the end of the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecastto increase by 5.7% and 1.6% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increasefrom an estimated 26.4TWh in 2008, to 26.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoreticalsurplus output should rise to a forecast 6.7TWh in 2013, assuming 3.0% annual growth in generation.We forecast an increase in Slovakian electricity generation of 33.7% in 2008-2018, which is towards thetop of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 17.7% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 13.6% in2008-2013. PED growth is set to rise from 10.5% in 2008-2013 to 15.0% in 2013-2018, or 27.1% overthe forecast period. An increase of 50% in hydro-power use during 2008-2018 is a key element ofgeneration growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise around 35% over the period, with nucleardemand up almost 29%. More details of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found later in this report.
Go to Source